Is Austin A Buyer's Market? Stats Don't Lie

Is Austin A Buyer’s Market? Stat’s Don’t Lie + How to Lock in $47K Before You Even Close

Insights from the latest "12:00 at 12 Rivers" hosted by Paul Smith @paulsellstx on Instagram Live 02.04.26 | Owner, Investor, Agent – Twelve Rivers Realty WATCH FULL VIDEO HERE

Welcome to this week's market update! Today we're covering how to lock in $40K-$50K in equity before you even close using the Domain's upcoming pre-construction condo strategy, why @RealEstate's "9.5 months supply" claim is dangerously wrong (and what Austin's market really looks like), government shutdown alerts for VA/FHA buyers, and the massive redevelopment transforming Austin's core from 6th Street to South Congress.

TLDR; Key Takeaways

✅ Domain Pre-Construction Condo Play - Put down $15K on $300K condo, 3-year build = $47K equity at closing (5% annual appreciation); equitable title strategy locks in below-market pricing

✅ Austin Market Reality Check - @RealEstate claims 9.5 months supply (FALSE); actual Austin MSA: 3.5 months, under $500K: 3.0 months (still seller's market); 9.5 months only exists in $2M+ luxury

✅ Government Shutdown VA/FHA Warning - Add contract language NOW for automatic closing extension; 20+ day shutdown on 30-day close = major problem for VA buyers

✅ Domain Becoming Austin's Uptown - North Burnet Gateway overlay allows 30-story buildings; light rail to airport by 2033; Braker & Burnet will be highest density point

✅ 6th Street Redevelopment - Stream Realty owns 70% of Historic 6th; rezoning + homeless shelter moved = major transformation; expect vertical development behind preserved facades

✅ South Congress Tipping Point - More non-local than local businesses for first time; $200/sq ft rents; "Keep Austin Weird" becoming generic national brands

✅ Price Point Matters - Market stats vary dramatically by price; don't trust blanket "buyer's market" claims without breaking down the data by neighborhood and price range

The Domain Pre-Construction Condo Opportunity: How to Make $47K in Equity Before You Close

Area of rezoning near Q2 Stadium - Community Impact

Big news in the Domain area! Endeavor is moving forward with rezoning near Q2 Stadium for the North Burnet Gateway overlay, which allows buildings up to 30 stories. Think Frost Bank Tower next to Q2.

When they announce the first mid-rise or high-rise condo project in this area (and it's coming), here's the investment play:

The Setup:

• Put down a reservation (often just $500)
• Contract price locked in today (let's say $300K)
• 5% down payment ($15K on a $300K condo)
• 3-year build timeline while the property appreciates
• Close with instant equity: If Austin appreciates at 5% annually (we're historically at 5.7%), your $300K condo is worth $347K when you close

You just made $47K in equity without doing anything.

The Equitable Title Advantage

Remember: Rule number one of real estate, you always make your money when you buy. This is called an equitable title. You put something under contract for less than it's worth, there's value there. That's a delta. You can either:

• Close on it and sell it to realize that equity
• Potentially assign the contract (depending on terms) and cash that equitable title check immediately
  
  

Calling Out @RealEstate's Misleading Market Stats

I need to call out some dangerous misinformation. When a major Instagram account posts that Austin has 9.5 months of supply, claiming Austin is a top buyer's market, that's not just wrong. It's irresponsible.

Here's the REALITY (as of this morning, February 4, 2026):

• Austin MSA: 12,785 active / 3,632 pending = 3.5 months supply
• Austin proper: 3,271 active / 976 pending = 3.35 months supply
• Under $500K: 7,419 active / 2,427 pending = 3.0 months supply (tightest market)
• $500K-$1M: 3,685 active / 941 pending = 3.92 months supply
• $1M-$2M: 1,079 active / 202 pending = 5.0 months supply
• $2M+: 571 active / 61 pending = 9.36 months supply
  
  

Here's the problem: That 9.5 months supply? It only exists in the luxury market above $2 million. But @RealEstate didn't specify that. They made it sound like the entire Austin market is in a buyer's paradise. It's not.

Why This Matters

If you're shopping for a home at $550K and you think you're in a 9.5-month supply market, you might lowball thinking you have leverage. Meanwhile, I'm seeing multiple offers on properties in that price range. You could lose the home you LOVE because you made decisions based on clickbait instead of actual data.


Remember: Six months supply = equilibrium market. Anything under six months favors sellers. Austin at 3.5 months? That's still a seller's market.

Government Shutdown Alert: Protect Your VA/FHA Contract NOW

Department of Veterans Affairs Office

If you're a VA or FHA buyer right now, listen up. We're hearing "government shutdown" more than ever, and if it happens, VA loans cannot fund. Period. The VA is a government-backed loan, so no government = no funding.

What to do:

Add language to your special provisions stating that in the event of a government shutdown, your closing date automatically extends X number of days. Don't assume you can close on time.

Real example: I have an agent (shout out @EdwardSellsATX) with a VA buyer right now. If we hit another 20+ day shutdown on a 30-day close, that's a massive problem. Talk to your mortgage broker and write protection into your contract.

6th Street Redevelopment: Goodbye Flaming Dr. Peppers

Congress to 35, south of the Capitol to 6th Street; this entire corridor is about to transform.

What's happening: About five years ago, Stream Realty (commercial real estate company) started buying up Historic 6th Street piece by piece. They now own about 70% of it. Through lobbying, they moved the homeless shelter, and now they're rezoning 6th Street.

My prediction: They'll preserve the historic facades (front 10-20 feet), then go vertical behind them. More development, more coffee shops, more daytime vibes. Less dive bars. Definitely fewer flaming Dr. Peppers.

Image created by ChatGPT - this image is not actually me or Denise (for entertainment purposes)

For the uninitiated: A flaming Dr. Pepper is a beer with amaretto, topped with 151 rum that you light on fire and blow. It was the early 2000s. Different times.

South Congress Reaches Tipping Point: The End of "Keep Austin Weird"?

Photo by Dave Creaney - ABJ

For the first time, South Congress has more non-local businesses than local ones. Rental rates on the street have hit $200 per square foot.

What this means: Ten, twenty years ago, South Congress was Lucy’s in Disguise, funky vintage shops, and the birthplace of "Keep Austin Weird." Now it's becoming more generic with national brands moving in.

Is this Austin jumping the shark? Maybe. Growth makes it hard to maintain a city's soul. Same thing happened when ACL and C3 sold to Live Nation, it just felt different. You lose that connection that made it special in the first place.

Final Thoughts

Thank you all for tuning in to the "12:00 at 12 Rivers". We've covered a lot today:

• The Domain pre-construction condo strategy to lock in $47K equity before closing
• Why @RealEstate's market stats are dangerously misleading
• Government shutdown protection for VA/FHA buyers
• Historic 6th Street's transformation from bars to vertical development
• South Congress losing its "Keep Austin Weird" identity
• Why price point matters when evaluating market conditions

With the Domain becoming Austin's “uptown”, 6th Street undergoing massive redevelopment, and accurate market data more important than ever, the window to buy strategically is now, not when everyone else figures it out based on viral Instagram posts.

Bottom Line

At the end of the day, you need to make well-informed decisions based on actual stats, not someone trying to grab clicks. If you're buying and you think there's 9.5 months supply when there's really 3.3 months at your price point, you're going to come in with a lowball offer and miss out on the home you love.

Talk to your agent. Get the real numbers. And if @RealEstate wants to debate these stats next Wednesday at noon, I'm here for it.

If you have questions about any of this or anything real estate, hit me up. Subscribe to the newsletter, smash like and subscribe on YouTube.

Y'all be good.
---Paul Smith
12 Rivers Realty
Paul Smith is the co-founder of Twelve Rivers Realty, specializing in Austin investment real estate and development. With over 20 years of local market experience, Paul hosts weekly "12:00 at 12 Rivers" market discussions every Wednesday at noon on Instagram Live @paulsellstx, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, Twitch & X.

Connect with Paul:

• Instagram: @paulsellstx
• YouTube: @paulsellstx
• Email: paul@paulsellstx.com