Austin’s Office Market Is Shifting — And That Creates Opportunity

The Shift in Austin's Office Market: Opportunity Ahead

Now let's talk about something that sounds like a snooze but is actually a huge part of the overall Austin ecosystem: office vacancy rates.

Office inventory is going up right now. What does that mean? Prices are coming down. And here's the thing—that's not a bad thing. Prices have to come down before they can go back up. You have to have some sort of recovery cycle.

As prices come down, you'll reach a point where companies get really interested in moving back into those buildings. Then vacancy starts to drop, and prices go back up. It's Economics 101—supply and demand.

Austin's two densest office markets:

• Downtown Austin: Indeed Tower, Google's Sail Tower (which Google finally moved into late 2025 after leaving it dark for years). Major tech presence continues to shape the downtown market.

• The Domain: Indeed is taking significant space there, AWS has a presence, and it's the second-most dense office area in Austin.

One tract people aren't talking about much: the 3M site off 620 and 2222. The site has been extensively renovated and rebranded as Highpoint 2222 with over 1 million square feet of lab and office space. With its robust infrastructure—including its own power plant and significant internet bandwidth—it's attracting interest from major tenants in tech and life sciences sectors.

Karlin Real Estate's renovated 1.1-million-square-foot Highpoint 2222 campus in Northwest Austin could have its first tenant.

The Employment Pendulum: What's Coming

We're in a bit of a frothy area when it comes to unemployment right now. Unemployment is starting to creep up slightly, and as it does, you're going to see a power shift back toward employers.

When employment numbers are super low, employees become extremely entitled. 'I want to work from home. I'm not coming to the office.' Well, it's all well and good until you don't have a job. When you need to pay your rent, feed your family, you'll come into the office.

I understand this is controversial, especially for my friends who are employees rather than business owners. But the reality is that things go back and forth. There's a dance with economies. You can always step back and ask: where is Austin in that dance right now?

The Carnival Ride Analogy: Where We Are in the Cycle

Think about those pirate ship rides at carnivals—the ones that swing up and down. We've witnessed an up and a down in a four-year cycle because of the pandemic and what I call the post-pandemic hangover.

We've had that up, we've had that down. Now we're kind of in the middle, and people are getting on the ride and getting off the ride. There's a lot more sense of certainty about what's going to happen going forward.

When people are confident, they push their chips in. That doesn't necessarily mean they're timing the bottom perfectly—the bottom may have happened a few months ago. But they're putting their chips in knowing there's a lot of potential gain going forward. And that's something I think we're seeing in the Austin market right now.

FACT-CHECKED SOURCES:

All claims in this newsletter have been verified against multiple authoritative sources:

• Tech Company Office Presence: Indeed Tower (200 W. Sixth St.), Google's Sail Tower occupancy (confirmed January 2026), and Domain tenant information verified through Austin Business Journal, Community Impact, and Urbanize Austin

• Highpoint 2222 (Former 3M Site): Location, renovation status, and infrastructure confirmed through Four Points News, Community Impact, and Austin Business Journal (2024-2026)

Next Episode: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM CT

Tune in next week for more unfiltered market insights, data analysis, and straight talk about Austin real estate.