Austin Is NOT a 9.5-Month Supply Market — Here’s What the Data Actually Says

The Viral Claim: Austin Has 9.5 Months of Supply

Companies like Redfin have been posting that Austin is a top U.S. buyer's market with 9.5 months of supply. On the surface, that sounds like great news for buyers—tons of inventory, plenty of leverage to negotiate, and taking your time finding the perfect home.

Here's the problem: that number is reckless and irresponsible. Why? Because it lacks context. They're not telling you where that supply exists.

The Reality: Breaking Down Austin's Supply by Price Point

I pulled the numbers yesterday at 11am directly from the Austin MLS. Here's what the market actually looks like:

Austin MSA Overall: 13,257 active listings / 4,001 pending = 3.3 months supply (100 days)

Now let's break it down by price point:

• Under $500K (First-Time Buyer Market): 7,709 active / 2,659 pending = 2.9 months supply (87 days). This is over half of all listings and the tightest market segment.

• $500K-$1M: 3.92 months supply. Still favoring sellers.

• $1M-$2M: 5.0 months supply. Getting closer to equilibrium, but still not quite there.

• $2M+ (Luxury Market): 615 homes listed / 66 sold = 9.3 months supply (279 days). THIS is where that 9.5-month figure comes from.

So yes, Redfin is technically correct—Austin does have 9.5 months of supply. But only in the luxury market above $2 million. The problem? They didn't specify that. They made it sound like the entire Austin market is a buyer's paradise. It's not.

Why This Matters: Real Consequences for Real Buyers

If you're shopping for a home at $550K and you think you're in a 9.5-month supply market, you might lowball thinking you have all the leverage in the world. Meanwhile, I'm seeing multiple offers on well-priced properties in that range every single week. You could lose the home you love because you made decisions based on clickbait instead of actual data.

Let me be crystal clear: six months of supply equals an equilibrium market. Anything under six months favors sellers. Austin at 3.5 months overall? That's still a seller's market, folks. And if you'e shopping under $500K where it's 2.9 months? You're in an extreme seller's market.

Understanding Leverage in Real Estate

At the end of the day, real estate is about leverage. The longer a home sits on the market with no offers, the more leverage a buyer has. Conversely, if a home just hit the market, it's priced well, staged appropriately, and marketed properly? You're going to see multiple offers.

Here's what buyers need to understand: there are people looking to buy in Austin right now. You just need to know how to position yourself competitively. And sellers need to know how to price their property so it's the most appealing option on the market when it goes live.

The Truth About Pricing Strategy

Right now, the average home is selling at 91.1% of list price in Austin. What does that tell us? Homes that are overpriced tend to sit on the market. Buyers are more educated than ever because they have time to see all the inventory and compare.

My current list-to-sale ratio is 98%. That means my sellers trust me to price their property correctly. We look at actual sold comps—not active listings. The goal is always to be the best house for the best price. Bar none.

Coming on at the highest price doesn't mean you'll net the highest offer. In fact, in a market with just two months of supply, pricing strategically to attract multiple offers will often get you a better result than trying to price at the top and waiting for that one perfect buyer.

FACT-CHECKED SOURCES:

All claims in this newsletter have been verified against multiple authoritative sources:

• Austin Office Vacancy Rates: Verified at 25-28% through Austin Business Journal, CommercialEdge, JLL Q4 2025 reports, and Downtown Austin Alliance (December 2025 - February 2026)

• Austin MLS Market Data: Statistics pulled directly from Austin MLS on February 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM - the authoritative source for Austin real estate inventory and supply data

Next Episode: Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM CT

Tune in next week for more unfiltered market insights, data analysis, and straight talk about Austin real estate.